September's first nineteen days are running 2.0% ahead of last year, up from 0.9% a week ago, with three consecutive weeks all pointing the same way and yield per cow strengthening. And after the case made through the Organic Dairy Round Table, Defra has eased the forage rule from 60:40 to 50:50 until the end of January. Grass is levelling off at a good level, the milk-to-feed ratio is still in the Caution zone, and fuel is the one line moving the wrong way.
Following the case put to Defra through the Organic Dairy Round Table, Defra has agreed a temporary drought derogation for organic dairy, cutting the minimum roughage requirement from 60% of the diet to 50%. Control Bodies can approve it on Defra's behalf from 18 September 2026 until 31 January 2027, for farms affected by the drought, in periods of up to three months at a time. The evidence behind the case drew heavily on the August drought survey — so if you filled it in, this decision is in no small part down to you.
The August survey worked. The evidence it produced is a large part of why Defra has now agreed the 50:50 forage derogation. The follow-up asks how autumn has actually gone, whether 50:50 goes far enough, and what the first survey missed — heat, fertility and the longer-term effect of this year's herd decisions. You do not need to have done the August survey to take part.
Week one barely nudged ahead, week two jumped, week three is holding — three consecutive weeks ahead of last year is a stronger signal than one good fortnight, and September has moved ahead of the pre-season forecast for the first time this month. What the daily figures still cannot show is how many cows did not make it through the height of the drought; culling decisions taken in July and August will not surface until later in the year.
On grass, expect a gentle easing rather than more climbing: we are probably past the best of the autumn flush and shortening days cap growth however much rain falls. The Met Office keeps things changeable and mild to late October, wettest in the west, with a warm, wet autumn one and a half to two times more likely than normal. Use the drier spells to get any last cut of silage in.
The four index tiles show the September compilation, measured against August — unchanged this week, because the compilation is monthly. They move with the month scrubber in the next section. The milk tile runs to 19 September.
Two indices on one base, so they share a single axis: 100 is where each sat in January 2025, so 112 means 12% dearer than then. Hover for month detail, toggle a series off, or narrow the window.
The shape is public. The calibrated monthly values, component weights and the £/t basket behind them ship with the full report.
Contact us for more informationA weighted basket of the eight raw materials that make up organic compound feed, priced delivered. It moves as soon as the market does.
The actual average cost of finished compound feed. It moves later and more slowly — mills buy forward, hold stock and absorb part of the move.
September is a new compilation, added to the series this week: raw materials 109.0 (+0.2 on August), compound feed 104.2 (+1.1), gap 4.8, milk-to-feed ratio 112.40. Soya's £20 fall was the biggest single move of the month, but it was outweighed by small gains in rape, both wheats, maize, lucerne and palm kernel. The report does not give amounts for those six, so the attribution panel shows their basket weight and direction only. Traders are split on what comes next: proteins turning weaker, cereals and maize staying bullish, and whichever side wins sets the direction into October.
Earlier restatement: July and August were recalculated from full source prices in the 31 August edition, superseding flash estimates (August 112.0 / 105.3 / 115.3; July 108.1 / 104.2 / 116.60). Those finalised figures are unchanged here. The August compilation also carried palm kernel £10/t below the identity-preserved price in the weekly table; the IP price remains the operative one for procurement.
Eight tracked materials, delivered within 50 miles of port or mill. Sort any column; filter to just the movers. Prices are subscriber data — direction, weight and availability are open. Everything that moved this week moved down — imported wheat and maize the furthest, then palm kernel and soya, then lucerne; rape, sunflower and UK wheat held level. Small moves, but the first week in a while where the direction has been consistently in your favour. Barley and peas were not quoted in this report.
| Material ▲▼ | Index weight ▲▼ | Basket share | Weekly move ▲▼ | Month move* ▲▼ | This week ▲▼ | Availability ▲▼ | Spot £/t | Forward £/t |
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Soya eased £3, giving back part of last week's rise, but the underlying picture is unchanged: the Chinese harvest is only just under way, so new crop will not land here in volume until the new year, leaving old-crop stocks tight into year end. December and January are still the pinch point: carry enough stock to cover any shortfall in deliveries through that window. Rape and sunflower held, both just below their series peaks.
Lucerne slipped after four flat weeks. Palm kernel eased back from the series high it set only last week — the first easing in either for more than a month.
Imported wheat eased while UK wheat held, narrowing the gap between them to about £10/t; both remain well below their March peaks. Maize fell for the first time after firming through August and September. A modest step back rather than a change of direction — traders are still flagging a bullish mood in cereals.
The engine behind the organic raw material index, opened up. Shift any component by a percentage and see the index, the gap and feed affordability re-solve instantly. Percentages only — no supplier prices are exposed.
The single ratio that answers it — milk price set against feed price. A higher number means feed is cheaper relative to the milk you sell. Published in full — it reveals no supplier pricing.
The direction of travel is against you. Below 113 for the first time, down four months running since May, feed costs rising and milk price flat. Freight and sterling are the two things to watch for replacement feed into the last quarter.
The absolute level is still historically strong. Every month from the series opening in November 2023 through to March 2025 sits below where the ratio is today. Feed is dear, but milk buys more of it than it did.
Put in your own milk price and feed price and see your ratio, what a tonne of feed costs you in milk, and where you sit against the published benchmark.
Contact us for more informationMilk price in pence per litre ÷ feed price in £ per kg MP:FP. A higher number means feed is more affordable against the milk you sell. The bar places you on the Nov-23 → Sep-26 range of the published series.
Organic milk collection data, to 19 September 2026. Two different comparisons run through this section: against last season, and against our pre-season forecast — every tile and table says which one it uses. Variance against last season is open; the 2024/25 benchmark, the underlying litre volumes and the position against forecast are subscriber data.
Last season was exceptional, so the headline comparison flatters the drop. The 2024/25 benchmark shows how much cushion is genuinely left — and how fast it is going.
Contact us for more informationSubscriber data
Each day of 2026 is tracked against the equivalent day in 2025. The daily variance series is subscriber data.
Contact us for more informationMonth-by-month litres, base and best-case forecasts, day-by-day September tracking, Q2 progress and the 2024/25 benchmark table. September's forecast is scaled to cover only the 19 days reported so far.
Contact us for more information| Month | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | Forecast | Change |
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Grass growth to 19 September, measured as kilograms of grass — water removed — grown per hectare each day. There is no new regional map this week, so the regional picture is unchanged: the North West strongest at 64, England's average 44.4, and the North East the one region that went backwards, at 38. The newer national figure has eased slightly, which suggests the recovery is levelling off rather than still building — normal for the time of year, and a long way better than a month ago.
The Met Office outlook into October and beyond, and the forage planning position.
Contact us for more informationA temporary easing of the minimum roughage requirement for organic dairy herds affected by the drought, agreed by Defra and administered by the Control Bodies. It keeps every mouthful organic — it stretches the forage you have with more organic concentrate, rather than bringing non-organic feed into the ration.
"The 50:50 derogation keeps every mouthful organic. Non-organic forage should be the last resort, not the first."
The case put to Defra drew heavily on the August drought survey — the herds behind those responses make up well over a third of the UK organic dairy herd, which is what gave the argument its weight.
The follow-up survey decides what comes next: whether 50:50 is enough, or whether the case needs pushing further on youngstock, on non-organic forage, or on timing. Take part →
The number that matters this week is +2.0% — September's daily deliveries so far against the same days last year, up from +0.9% a week ago, with three consecutive weeks now pointing the same way. What cannot be read off the daily figures is how many cows were lost at the height of the drought.
Use the drier spells to get any last cut of silage in — the outlook is changeable and mild into late October, turning more widely unsettled after mid-month. Check your average farm cover before committing to a cut.
Carry enough protein through December and January, the window where old-crop soya could run low before new crop lands.
Budget fuel as a live cost through autumn work — see the energy section below.
Apply for the 50:50 derogation before you need it — see the forage derogation section. It is not automatic.
Tell us how it has gone for you — the autumn follow-up survey is open now, about four minutes.
The August responses were collected at the height of the dry spell, and the evidence they produced is a large part of why Defra has now agreed the 50:50 forage derogation. The follow-up asks how autumn has actually gone, whether 50:50 is enough, and where the case needs pushing further — on youngstock, on non-organic forage, on timing.
A grass deficit is a problem you can see now and buy your way out of. A plan that depends on September and October growth you have not had yet is a problem you find out about in December, when replacement feed is dearer and less available.
September's milk and grass figures suggest the window came good for many farms. The follow-up survey below asks whether it did for yours — that is the question these responses cannot answer.
That is the case for reviewing forage stocks through to February 2027 now, while there is still time and choice in the replacement feed market, rather than in October when there may be neither.
"78% of farmers surveyed report grass growth more than 30% below normal. 84% say they are relying on a good September and October just to rebuild winter forage."
Drewry World Container Index, 40ft container. Shanghai/Rotterdam fell another 4%, a seventh straight weekly decline, and this week the Composite followed it down, slipping 1% off last week's series high. For the first time in a while both numbers point the same way, and sterling held steady.
Three-week rate history, sterling conversions and the weekly commentary that reads them against your buying position.
Contact us for more information| Route | 10 Sep | 17 Sep | 24 Sep | 24 Sep (£) | Weekly | Annual |
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This is the east-to-west leg organic protein and forage-replacement imports actually travel on. Seven consecutive weekly falls, the last one 4%, and pulling steadily further clear of $4,000. Falling here feeds through to landed cost.
A basket of eight global routes. Down 1% from last week's series high, +154% on the year — a signal about global shipping conditions, not directly about your invoice.
Weekly £/$ and £/€ readings and the import-cost commentary that goes with them.
Contact us for more information"Seven straight weekly falls on Shanghai/Rotterdam, and this week the Composite finally dipped with it. One week isn't a trend for the wider index, but for the first time in a while both numbers are pointing the right way."
Freight, red diesel, electricity and the landed cost of imported protein all trace back to one price. Brent is up about 26% on July's average — and red diesel has now caught up with it, which makes fuel a live cost for any late silage or autumn cultivations.
The pass-through: which of your cost lines move with Brent, by how much, and with what lag.
Contact us for more informationBank Rate was held at 3.75% again on 17 September — and again 6–3, with the same three members voting for a rise. There has been no cut since December, and the dissent is all in one direction. The reason is the oil price above.
Base rate is not your rate. See the four common margin bands over the last year, then work out your own annual interest.
Contact us for more informationThis page is a taster. These modules are next onto the platform.
A range of subscriber reports covering raw material prices and forwards, compound feed costs by CP band, complete milk volume and forecast tracking, regional forage detail, the drought outlook and the full planning position — in the depth and frequency that suits you.
Contact us for more information →Contact details to follow.