Organic Dairy Market Dashboard · live from Daykin_Feed_Intelligence_Master_V2.xlsx + Weekly Report · Raw Material Index (ORMFI), Compound Feed Cost Index (OCFCI) and MP:FP are July's published monthly index; raw materials, freight & currency current to 16-Jul-2026
Last updated 27 Jul 2026 Updates every Monday
Organic Dairy Intelligence — July 2026
Raw materials · compound feed · milk:feed ratio · market risk. Base period Jan-25 = 100.
Market outlookFIRMING
Executive summary — July 2026
Market temperature: FIRMING
Protein markets and freight strengthened sharply during July.
Current compound-feed prices still reflect older raw-material cover, which is why the Compound Feed Cost Index (OCFCI) has moved less than the Raw Material Index (ORMFI) so far.
Autumn quotations are expected to firm as replacement values pull through — see the outlook to December below.
Buying stance
Review autumn requirements now. Make decisions against forward milk margins and replacement feed costs, rather than assuming the recent period of stability will continue.
Forward view
The Raw Material Index (ORMFI) is expected to stay broadly elevated through the autumn. On the milk:feed economics base case, feed cost is forecast to rise faster than milk price as autumn replacement values pull through, narrowing the margin from 116.0:1 in July toward 109:1 by December — see "MP:FP & milk price outlook" and "Kg of milk to buy 1t of feed" below.
Raw Material Index (ORMFI)
108
▲ +1 vs Jun-26 (+1%)
Compound Feed Cost Index (OCFCI)
103
▲ +1 vs Jun-26 (+1%)
Average MP:FP Ratio
116
▼ -1 vs Jun-26 (-1%)
Average Milk Price
57ppl
● steady vs Jun-26
This month
Protein markets have firmed, pushing the Raw Material Index (ORMFI) to 108. Compound feed costs have moved more gradually, with the Compound Feed Cost Index (OCFCI) at 103. Freight has re-emerged as the main upside risk, and the UK-weighted average MP:FP ratio has eased slightly to 116.0:1 (from the Organic Milk Price & MP:FP Dashboard's processor-weighted view).
Buying stance: review autumn requirements and make decisions against forward margins rather than relying on the recent period of stability.
Market drivers
Risk score 1 (low) – 5 (high)
Feed & Raw Materials
Raw Material & Compound Feed Cost Index — performance
Monthly, Nov-23 to Jul-26. Base Jan-25 = 100. Raw Material Index (ORMFI) tracks the raw material basket below; Compound Feed Cost Index (OCFCI) tracks blended compound feed cost.
Model-based forecast, Aug-26 to Dec-26. Solid = actual (published). Dashed = forecast base case. Shaded band = low–high range. Base Jan-25 = 100.
Raw Material Index actual
Raw Material Index forecast (base)
Raw Material Index range (low–high)
Compound Feed Cost Index actual
Compound Feed Cost Index forecast (base)
Compound Feed Cost Index range (low–high)
Month
Raw Material low
Raw Material base
Raw Material high
Compound Feed low
Compound Feed base
Compound Feed high
What this forecast does not capture
Freight rates, sterling movements, and one-off protein market news are not seasonal and are not modelled here — they're the main reason actual results could land outside even the high/low band. Freight alone moved from $2,463 to $8,267/FEU within a single year (2023–24). Treat this as a base case to plan around, not a guarantee, and revisit it monthly as new actuals arrive.
Confidence: Low–Medium. Raw Material Index/Compound Feed Cost Index legs draw on 4–6 years of component seasonality; MP:FP/milk draw on a single prior year.
Current raw material movement
Jun-26 → Jul-26 (Imported Wheat updated to its 16-Jul spot price of £320, down from £325 at the monthly cut; Soya Expeller spot corrected to £670). Weights are normalised to ~100% (shown here rounded to whole numbers, so the total can be a point or two off 100%).
Component
Weight
Jun-26 (£/t)
Jul-26 (£/t)
Δ%
Signal
Index contribution
Total
“Index contribution” = each component's own price move vs its Jan-25 base, weighted by its weight share —
a from-first-principles read on this month's raw material basket, alongside the 108 published Raw Material Index (ORMFI) above.
Jun-26 to Dec-26. Solid = actual (published). Dashed = forecast (base case). Base Jan-25 = 100.
Compound Feed Cost Index
Month
Compound Feed Cost Index
Component price forecast (base case, £/t)
Seasonal-ratio projection per raw material, Aug–Dec 2026 — the building blocks behind the Raw Material Index (ORMFI) outlook above. Soya Expeller and Maize are now held flat at a fixed £660/t and £335/t forward contract price covering Aug-26–Apr-27 (the contract runs beyond this dashboard's Dec-26 forecast horizon); all other components remain seasonal-ratio projections.
Component
Aug-26
Sep-26
Oct-26
Nov-26
Dec-26
Milk Price & MP:FP
Organic milk supply & herd structure
Supply-side context for the feed cost and margin story above. Source: AHDB (GB organic milk deliveries; national organic herd) — sourced from published sector data, not yet linked to the Master workbook.
GB Organic Milk Deliveries
Organic Dairy Herd
GB organic milk deliveries are currently running below year-ago levels even as the milk:feed margin narrows into autumn — a combination that typically limits how far buyers can push back on price. The national organic herd contracted 4% in 2025, continuing a longer decline — see the 10-year trend and illustrative outlook below. Read alongside the raw material and MP:FP outlook above, this reinforces the "review autumn requirements now" buying stance.
Organic dairy cow numbers — UK
Annual, 2016–2025 actual, thousand head. Solid = actual. Dashed = illustrative trend extrapolation to 2028 (not an official forecast). Shaded band = low–high range.
Actual
Forecast (illustrative)
Range (low–high)
Year
Organic Dairy Cows (thousand head)
Type
Range (low–high)
Source: Defra Organic Farming Statistics (2016–2023) & AHDB (2024–2025). Note the
33% single-year fall between 2019 (89.8k) and 2020 (60.0k) is Defra's published figure as-is; we haven't been
able to confirm whether it reflects a genuine destocking event or a change in how the series was compiled, so
treat pre/post-2020 comparisons with some caution. The 2026–2028 figures are Daykin's own trend extrapolation
— not an official projection — illustrating a base case where the recent deceleration in the rate of decline
continues, bracketed by a low case (decline continues at the sharper 2022–24 pace) and a high case (numbers
stabilise). Confidence: Low.
Milk price & MP:FP ratio — long-run history
Monthly actuals, Jan-2020 to Jul-26. UK weighted-average effective milk price, from the Organic Milk Price & MP:FP Dashboard.
Historic Avg MP:FP
Highest MP:FP
Lowest MP:FP
Current Rank
Milk price (ppl)
MP:FP ratio
12m rolling avg
Month
Milk Price (ppl)
MP:FP Ratio
12m Rolling Avg
MP:FP ratio outlook
Jun-26 to Dec-26. Solid = actual. Dashed = forecast (base case). Rebuilt from a clean July anchor of 57ppl milk / £480/t 18% feed.
MP:FP ratio
Alert threshold
Month
MP:FP ratio
Built up from July's clean 57ppl milk price / £480 per tonne 18% feed anchor (116.0 to one decimal on the
precise processor-weighted figures; 115 on these rounded anchors). From there, milk price is held flat at
57ppl and feed cost is forecast to rise as autumn replacement values pull through — £495/t in August to
£508/t by December, per the Daykin_Feed_Intelligence Master workbook's own MP:FP Economics scenario (Aug–Oct
figures from that workbook, Nov–Dec extended on the same trend). Ratio = milk ppl × 0.971 ÷ (feed £/t ÷
1000). On this basis the ratio falls from 116 in July to 109 by December — see milk:feed economics below
for the kg-of-milk equivalent.
Milk:feed economics — kg of milk to buy 1 tonne of 18% feed
Jul-26 (actual) to Dec-26. Same clean 57ppl milk / £480/t feed anchor as the MP:FP ratio outlook above.
Jul-26 (actual)
Aug-26
Sep-26
Oct-26
Nov-26
Dec-26
Kg of milk needed to cover the cost of 1 tonne of 18% CP compound feed, built from the same clean 57ppl
milk / £480/t feed anchor as the MP:FP ratio outlook above (milk price held flat, feed cost rising as
autumn replacement values pull through). A rising figure means the milk:feed margin is weakening. On this
base case it rises from 867kg in July to 918kg by December — the margin narrows steadily through autumn,
though it stays positive throughout.
Scenario calculator
Test your own milk price and feed cost assumptions against the same formula used in the MP:FP outlook and milk:feed economics above.
57.0
£480
MP:FP Ratio
—
Kg Milk / Tonne Feed
—
Vs Dec-26 Base Case
—
109:1 forecast by December
Uses the same formula as above: ratio = milk ppl × 0.971 ÷ (feed £/t ÷ 1000); kg milk = (feed £/t × 100 ÷ milk ppl) ÷ 0.971. Move the sliders to compare your own numbers against the July anchor and the December base case.